The Critical Run-in by Steve Liles

With this in mind it is difficult to predict the remaining games and assess the chances of the threatened teams but since when did logic play any part in a football fan’s statistical analysis??!!! So with the latest football stats at my side and a prayer mat at my feet, here’s my assessment of the critical run-in.

Rotherham perhaps don’t have the easiest run-in anymore as three of the teams they have to face are fighting for their lives and the fourth team have hit a vein of form. However, they do have a very big advantage going into the final run-in and that is that there are four teams below them who must gain at least two more points than the Millers. It would be a precarious position if one team gaining an unexpected win could overhaul Rotherham, but it is an altogether different proposition for four teams to do this.

Being very conservative, I would expect Rotherham to win at least one of the 6 pointers against the teams at the bottom and scrape out a fighting draw in one of the other three matches to at least give us 53 points.

This would leave Derby requiring 8 points from their remaining four games to overhaul us. With home games against Preston and Millwall and away games at Burnley and Wimbledon they do have the games available to maybe just do this. Preston and Wimbledon represent an excellent opportunity to take 6 points and another fighting point in one of their other matches could leave them with 53 points also.

Gillingham stopped their recent run of 5 straight defeats on Monday with a good win over Walsall. However, with every chance that Gillingham could slide into the bottom three after Saturday’s match at home to high flying Ipswich, they will then have the relatively easier matches in the run-in coupled with the fight that the bottom three position is bound to give them to pick up points away at Wimbledon and Stoke and at home to Coventry. Maybe the 53 point marker is actually achievable from these matches and Gillingham could end the season on 54 points.

Burnley are the most inconsistent team at the bottom at the moment having picked up maximum points in their last two away games against fellow strugglers Bradford and Walsall whilst taking no points in their two homes games against Norwich and Watford. However, those two away games proving that Burnley can pull off a result when they need it. If they could manage to pick up at least 6 points from their home games against Wimbledon, Derby and Sunderland then they would just need one point from Cardiff and Rotherham away to secure a 54 point total.

Walsall are definitely the team below Rotherham who appear to have one of the difficult run-ins just at the time they are starting to struggle. Having picked up 6 points in away games at Preston and Derby and looking safe they suddenly find themselves facing away games against Norwich and Crystal Palace with an home game against Sheffield United sandwiched in between. If they manage to pick up just one point from those games then it could make their final home match against Rotherham United extremely important to Walsall but maybe immaterial to the Millers. If they were to take full points in that match then they will do well to reach 52 points.

Watford for my money appeared down and out a couple of weeks ago but maximum points over Easter against fellow strugglers Crewe and Burnley have given them a lifeline. However, Rotherham need to take note that not only have Watford proved they can fight out a result in the basement challenges but their next game away at Millmoor represents their best chance for taking any more points unless their last match of the season at home to Reading sees their opponents having dropped out of the race for the playoffs. If this proves to be the case then the three points on offer in that match may well be their only further gains this season with away games at Millwall and West Ham and an home game against Norwich sandwiched in between, leaving Watford precariously on 53 points.

Many people believe Joe Kinnear has steadied Nottingham Forest to safety and even Joe himself was speaking about their promotion push next season now that they have gained the 50 point mark with their away point at Preston on Easter Monday. However, with home games against Millwall and Wigan and away games against Ipswich and West Brom, Forest would do very well to manage any more victories this season and could find themselves very lucky to manage to take even two more points from those matches leaving them seriously panicking on 52 points.

Crewe also appeared to have got themselves out of relegation troubles with a well documented lucky win over Coventry on Monday leaving themselves all but safe on 51 points. However, with away games at Reading and Sunderland probably leaving them with no return they will do well to take anything more than another lucky point in their home games against Crystal Palace and Norwich precariously leaving them on maybe just 52 points also.

The upshot of all this is that all eight teams fighting against the remaining relegation spot will probably end up with somewhere between 52 and 54 points. Of course there will be one or two who will pull off an unexpected victory or draw and manage to drag themselves clear. However, there will also be one or two who will probably slip up in the matches they were counting on and it is those teams who will be saying goodbye to the division.

It has to be hoped that with every game representing a chance of points for Rotherham that a bad slip up may happen once but surely not again. However, with the table as tight as it is and the nerves adding to the lottery of results at this stage of the season then Rotherham need to take the points as soon as possible.

This may prove difficult as Watford come to Millmoor on Saturday having taken three wins and a draw in their last five matches, their one loss being a narrow 1-0 defeat away at Ipswich. Clearly Watford are up for the fight and boosted by their maximum points return over Easter.

It could be then that Rotherham’s best chance of success may come away from home at Highfield Road where Coventry have just slipped up recently losing four of their last five matches. However, it must be noted that all these games have been against teams fighting for the playoffs (except for Crewe fighting against relegation) and their one victory was a 4-0 thrashing of Millwall. I certainly

And Hopefully some more of This!!

wouldn’t want my season to be determined on the chance of a victory away at Coventry.

Failure in either of these two games would leave two very tough games at home to Burnley followed by a potential loser takes nothing game away at the Bescot.

If this doesn’t get the nerves jangling, the passion racing, the heart pumping and the voices singing then I have no idea what will. Come on Rotherham – we know we can do it!!!!