First things first: I know nothing very much about football. I'm rubbish at playing it, I've never been involved in coaching or management and I'm not qualified as a referee or anything like that. The only authority that I have to speak from is 20-odd years of watching the Millers.
Secondly, I'm not really a moaner. I'm secretly about as optimistic as you get about the Millers, unrealistically so. I felt at the start of last season that we'd sneak into the play-offs; this season I'm sure we'll go up. Really, honestly, I am.
Thing is, though, that even though that's what I felt would happen last season and that's what I feel will happen this, I can't make myself think it. Even though I sincerely, genuinely feel this is the season it all turns round, I can't think of a rational reason why it should be so.
And that's what worries me. I'm suspicious that my expectations of a good season are the product of nothing more than blind optimism and, well, every football fanatic has that. I'm afraid of another season of hollow disillusionment, another season full of that dull, numbing feeling of being let down by something that you're not sure ever actually promised anything in the first place.
I've tried to cheer myself up with the thought that all bar one of the teams that went down last year went back up and the one that didn't nearly did and isn't a real football team anyway so was simply suffering the effects of bad footballing karma. So, if they could do it, so can we.
Except of course, that Hartlepool and Walsall and Swindon kept on most of the players that formed their relegated teams, added some extra strength, quality, firepower to those teams and bounced back. We, by choice and circumstance, have culled more than half of last year's first team squad. So that source of comfort doesn't quite hold up.
Ah, but we were rubbish last year so clearing out the deadwood and installing some fresh faces is a good thing.
Now, if that was the first time we'd had this idea, I'd be happier. Thing is, though, I can't help but think that Harford spent a happy few months clearing out deadwood to bring in fresh "athletic" faces. And last season, I could have sworn Knill was happy to see the experience players depart so that he could freshen up the squad with new "enthusiastic, hungry" players. So, we've cleared more deadwood than an international logging company in the past three seasons and gone nowhere fast. I can't work out why this season should be any different, except that it will be of course, but that sounds worryingly like blind faith again.
And here's another thought that troubles me: maybe we weren't quite as rubbish as we think we were, maybe the purge of players is over the top. We got, discounting the points deduction for a moment, more points than Chesterfield, Bradford and Brentford, none of whom have turned over the squad to anything like the extent we have. If we hadn't had the 10 points knocked off, one more win would have seen us stop up on goal difference above Leyton Orient. They've offered contracts to most of their out of contract players, looking to use them as the foundation of a winning side.
Secondly, I'm not really a moaner. I'm secretly about as optimistic as you get about the Millers, unrealistically so. I felt at the start of last season that we'd sneak into the play-offs; this season I'm sure we'll go up. Really, honestly, I am.
Thing is, though, that even though that's what I felt would happen last season and that's what I feel will happen this, I can't make myself think it. Even though I sincerely, genuinely feel this is the season it all turns round, I can't think of a rational reason why it should be so.
And that's what worries me. I'm suspicious that my expectations of a good season are the product of nothing more than blind optimism and, well, every football fanatic has that. I'm afraid of another season of hollow disillusionment, another season full of that dull, numbing feeling of being let down by something that you're not sure ever actually promised anything in the first place.
I've tried to cheer myself up with the thought that all bar one of the teams that went down last year went back up and the one that didn't nearly did and isn't a real football team anyway so was simply suffering the effects of bad footballing karma. So, if they could do it, so can we.
Except of course, that Hartlepool and Walsall and Swindon kept on most of the players that formed their relegated teams, added some extra strength, quality, firepower to those teams and bounced back. We, by choice and circumstance, have culled more than half of last year's first team squad. So that source of comfort doesn't quite hold up.
Ah, but we were rubbish last year so clearing out the deadwood and installing some fresh faces is a good thing.
Now, if that was the first time we'd had this idea, I'd be happier. Thing is, though, I can't help but think that Harford spent a happy few months clearing out deadwood to bring in fresh "athletic" faces. And last season, I could have sworn Knill was happy to see the experience players depart so that he could freshen up the squad with new "enthusiastic, hungry" players. So, we've cleared more deadwood than an international logging company in the past three seasons and gone nowhere fast. I can't work out why this season should be any different, except that it will be of course, but that sounds worryingly like blind faith again.
And here's another thought that troubles me: maybe we weren't quite as rubbish as we think we were, maybe the purge of players is over the top. We got, discounting the points deduction for a moment, more points than Chesterfield, Bradford and Brentford, none of whom have turned over the squad to anything like the extent we have. If we hadn't had the 10 points knocked off, one more win would have seen us stop up on goal difference above Leyton Orient. They've offered contracts to most of their out of contract players, looking to use them as the foundation of a winning side.
But we did have the 10 points knocked off and we would have gone down even if we hadn't, so we did something wrong. So long as we work out what that is and put it right, success will follow.
Have we though? The biggest single problem we had last year was dealing with set plays. We couldn't defend them - nearly a quarter of the goals we shipped came from corners or free kicks played into the box - and we couldn't score from them (a measly 3 goals all season and none since October). Do any of the new signings really look like they'll stop the opposition scoring at set plays or score lots of goals for us from that route?
Well, if a survey of European Leagues prepared in 2006 is right, the average central defender is 183 cm tall (about 6'2). Only Sharps is that height or above in our defence. Only Sharps and O'Grady are that height or above in our entire outfield squad. So we can expect that at least one player will have at least 2 inches on his marker when we're defending corners and set plays. And that, last season, was enough to see us ship 16 goals (more than anyone else in League One by some margin). I'm sure that this season's defence (three full-backs below 5' 9, two just 6 foot defenders and Sharps) is going to be much better, it's just that I can't find any objective evidence to back that belief up.
Going forward, I take comfort from the fact that the 58 goals we banged in last year was the 13th best performance in the division. But then I worry that 48 of them were scored by players that are no longer part of the squad. I worry that Cahill, Taylor, Newsham and O'Grady between them have scored one more League goal than Delroy Facey managed for us last season. I worry that the most prolific scoring ratio of anyone in our squad is O'Grady, who averages a goal every 5 games. I worry that the player we're linked with to put this right is Paul Warne, who averages a goal every 5 games over a 270-odd game career.
I know it will come right, I know Newsham will blossom and O'Grady will smack them in and everything will be fine. I know they're just starting out so they look poor. It's just that Hoskins, say, even before he broke into the first team regularly, managed a goal every three games.
So, I am optimistic. I do think believe we'll do well. It's just that I can't find enough reasons to support my belief. And that makes me worried.